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Outlooks
Private Credit's Transparency Bill Comes Due
The Financial Stability Board's report on vulnerabilities in private credit, unpacked in EY's latest analysis, marks a shift from watching the market to testing it. Regulators have stopped asking whether private credit should keep growing. They are now asking whether firms can prove how it is valued, funded, and sold. The growth figures are the easy part of the story. The harder part is that a $2.3 trillion asset class has never run through a full credit cycle, and the data n
Private Debt Is the Only Strategy Still Raising Money
PitchBook's Q2 2026 Global Private Market Fundraising Report shows global private capital fundraising heading for a fifth straight annual decline. Managers raised $658.1 billion across 1,499 funds in the first half, and trailing 12 month capital is down 12.7% while fund count is down 37%. The gap between those two figures is the real story. Capital is not leaving the asset class so much as consolidating into fewer, larger vehicles run by established managers. Private debt is
Defaults Are Falling. The BDC Gap Just Hit a Record.
The most important number in Moody's Analytics' mid year US credit risk outlook for 2026 to 2027 is not the falling default rate. It is the gap between public BDCs and the Baa rated corporates they are built to resemble, which widened to the largest on record in the second quarter
Canada Borrows Little Private Credit but Owns a Lot of It
Canada barely borrows private credit, and it owns a great deal of it. Non bank lenders supply about 15% of the external funding of Canadian businesses, a share that has not moved in a decade, while Canadian institutions have quietly built roughly $500 billion of exposure to the asset class abroad.
US Buyout Funds Stopped Beating Public Markets in 2019. The Unsold Backlog Has Reached 33,000 Companies.
Private equity's core promise held for roughly three decades and then broke. Steven Kaplan of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, whose analysis of US buyout funds anchors a report on Bloomberg Television, finds outperformance against public markets running from the 1990s through 2018 and reversing from 2019. Two forces did it. Big tech pushed public market returns higher, and the prices paid during the boom made positions harder to exit. The result sits in in
Sentiment
Asset Managers Should Enter Private Wealth Only With Firmwide Commitment, Ardian's Mallin Argues
Distributing private markets products to the wealth channel demands a firmwide operational and cultural commitment that most asset managers underestimate, and firms without top-down support should stay out. Ava Mallin, Managing Director of US Private Wealth Solutions at Ardian, argues this in a conversation recorded live at iCapital Connect on Alt Goes Mainstream. Private wealth is complex and expensive, she says, requiring operational overhauls and increased distribution spe
Private Credit Doubled to $2 Trillion on Retail Money. The Managers Who Leaned Hardest Are the Ones That Break.
The private credit shakeout will sort managers by funding source rather than by underwriting quality alone. Kevin McKeon, Head of the US Financial Services Practice at Odgers, makes the argument on Leading Through Uncertainty.
US Buyout Funds Stopped Beating Public Markets in 2019. The Unsold Backlog Has Reached 33,000 Companies.
Private equity's core promise held for roughly three decades and then broke. Steven Kaplan of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, whose analysis of US buyout funds anchors a report on Bloomberg Television, finds outperformance against public markets running from the 1990s through 2018 and reversing from 2019. Two forces did it. Big tech pushed public market returns higher, and the prices paid during the boom made positions harder to exit. The result sits in in
News
Private Credit's Reckoning Will Land on Insurers, Not Banks
Nick Nemeth of Mispriced Assets argues in a conversation with Jack Farley on Monetary Matters that the standard defense of private credit, that the banks are not holding the paper, is technically true and analytically useless. Roughly a trillion dollars of private credit has migrated onto insurance balance sheets totaling about ten trillion dollars, an asset base he sizes at roughly 150 percent of the Federal Reserve's. The comparison he reaches for is not 2008 but 1929, on t
Carlyle Group Q2 2026 Earnings Results: Record Fee Earnings and a Defense Bet Signal the Next Phase of Schwartz's Rebuild
Carlyle Group's Q2 results tell two stories. The surface narrative is a clean earnings beat, with distributable earnings of $472 million and record fee related earnings comfortably clearing consensus.
TPG Q2 2026 Earnings: Fee Machine Hits Record Stride as AUM Crosses $327 Billion
TPG reported second quarter 2026 results that beat consensus estimates and sent shares up 5.5%, with fee related earnings surging 43% year over year to $315 million on $628 million of fee related revenue.
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