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The definitive source of private markets intelligence.
Outlooks
Only 58 of 254 Backlogged Startups Still Look IPO-Bound
Only 58 of the 254 US venture-backed companies that looked IPO-ready in 2023 are still expected to list within three years. PitchBook's Susan Hu and Andrew Akers argue the backlog is a myth, with most of those companies raising private capital instead of going public.
Signed Contracts Now Separate Investable Datacenter Plays From the Rest
Contracted demand separates investable datacenter exposure from thematic exposure across chips, gas, and construction. PitchBook's analysts favor names with signed hyperscaler offtake, fee-based income, or code-mandated work.
$15.4 Billion in Private Credit Loans Due Within a Year
Private credit BDCs hold $15.4 billion of loans maturing by June 2027, marked at 87% of par. PRISM Private Markets data shows 111 of the 598 borrowers already held below 80% of cost.
Severe PIK Flips in Private Credit Fell by More Than Half
High-severity PIK flips at private credit BDCs fell to 47 borrowers in Q2 2026, from 100 at year-end 2025. PRISM Private Markets data shows reversions to cash pay outnumbering new flips for two straight quarters.
Software Leads Private Credit PIK Flips Heading Into Q3
Software borrowers led all sectors in cash-to-PIK switches at private credit BDCs in Q2, with 28 names flipping. PRISM Private Markets data shows Exabeam and Diligent moving to PIK at several lenders at once ahead of Q3 filings.
Sentiment
Direct Lending Does Not Diversify a Private Equity Portfolio
What's New Middle market direct lending moves with private equity, which makes it a weak defensive counterweight in an equity-heavy portfolio. James Li, President and Partner at Davidson Kempner, argues this in a podcast interview on Alt Goes Mainstream. Direct lenders finance the same companies the sponsors own, one level up the capital structure. Distressed and opportunistic credit run the other way, buying when sponsors and lenders are forced to move assets. Allocators sho
Asset Managers Should Enter Private Wealth Only With Firmwide Commitment, Ardian's Mallin Argues
Distributing private markets products to the wealth channel demands a firmwide operational and cultural commitment that most asset managers underestimate, and firms without top-down support should stay out. Ava Mallin, Managing Director of US Private Wealth Solutions at Ardian, argues this in a conversation recorded live at iCapital Connect on Alt Goes Mainstream. Private wealth is complex and expensive, she says, requiring operational overhauls and increased distribution spe
Private Credit Doubled to $2 Trillion on Retail Money. The Managers Who Leaned Hardest Are the Ones That Break.
The private credit shakeout will sort managers by funding source rather than by underwriting quality alone. Kevin McKeon, Head of the US Financial Services Practice at Odgers, makes the argument on Leading Through Uncertainty.
News
Ares No Longer Needs Direct Lending to Carry Its Growth
Ares raised $31.0 billion in the quarter, more than half outside its Credit Group, even as credit deployment fell 33%. Michael Arougheti and Jarrod Phillips of Ares argue that several scaled businesses now carry the firm's growth rather than any single strategy.
Real Assets Have Overtaken Credit as Blue Owl's Growth Engine
Blue Owl's Real Assets AUM rose 27% to $94.9 billion while Credit fee-paying AUM held flat at $97.0 billion. Blue Owl Capital's latest earnings show its growth now runs through net lease, real estate credit and digital infrastructure rather than direct lending.
Scarce Capital Is Becoming Blackstone's Edge in the AI Build-Out
Blackstone's inflows topped $270 billion over twelve months, the highest in four years, as base management fees hit a record $2.0 billion. Steve Schwarzman and Jon Gray of Blackstone argue that higher rates and scarce capital are thinning the field in AI infrastructure, leaving the firm's scale as its edge.
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