Goldman Sachs Summit Signals 2026 Dealmaking Surge
- Editor
- 4 days ago
- 2 min read
What's New
According to Goldman Sachs Asset Management's 2025 Alternatives Summit, corporate M&A volumes in 2025 are expected to match 2021 levels, with IPO markets showing significant recovery despite earlier tariff impacts. The October gathering brought together leaders including former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and former UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who delivered a stark warning that the next decade will be "the most dangerous and transformational of our lifetime."
Why It Matters
The summit's bullish dealmaking outlook arrives amid a complex backdrop of geopolitical volatility, persistent inflation concerns, and an AI-driven capital expenditure boom reshaping global investment priorities. For institutional investors, the message is clear: stay disciplined, stay selective, and stay invested in US assets despite short-term noise.
Big Picture Drivers
US preeminence: The gap between the US and other developed/emerging markets continues to widen across most metrics, with no countries likely to catch up
AI capex boom: Data centers, power consumption, and related job creation are fueling near-term growth as AI infrastructure buildout accelerates
Geopolitical shift: A move from unipolar to volatile multipolar order is intensifying US-China competition and coordination among authoritarian regimes
Private credit fundamentals: Credit markets remain healthy, though rigorous diligence and active management are essential for navigating challenges
Value creation evolution: Private equity is shifting from multiple expansion to operational improvements including margin expansion and organic growth
By The Numbers
2021-level: Expected 2025 corporate M&A volumes matching peak activity
3%: Annual US GDP growth rate needed to prevent debt-to-GDP concerns from escalating
3-5 years: Potential sustainability window for current AI capital deployment levels
Record low: 2024 private markets distributions despite rising alternatives AUM
Key Trends to Watch
Sovereign AI emergence: Middle East and Asia are building domestic AI capabilities, signaling a geographic shift in technology infrastructure investment.
Power constraints as market check: Energy availability is becoming the natural throttle on AI buildout, creating bottlenecks that will shape investment opportunities.
Secondary market surge: GP and LP-led secondary transactions are accelerating due to liquidity innovation, creating new investment pathways as exits remain the industry's primary bottleneck.
Agentic AI as value driver: Private equity leaders identified agentic AI as the biggest unlock for portfolio company value creation, emphasizing impact over hype.
The Wrap
The summit's central message: US economic resilience and AI-driven transformation are creating significant opportunities, but success requires separating signal from noise, maintaining disciplined underwriting standards, and building portfolios that can weather a multipolar world marked by heightened geopolitical risk and technological disruption.