What's New PitchBook's 2026 US Venture Capital Outlook forecasts a counterintuitive surge in early-stage deal activity despite sluggish fundraising, driven by multistage firms deploying aggressive seed strategies and AI capturing an unprecedented 65% of total deal value. First-time financing activity through Q3 2025 was just 200 deals behind 2021's record pace, defying expectations for a liquidity-constrained market. Why It Matters The fundamental structure of venture dealm

PitchBook's 2026 EMEA Private Capital Outlook projects the ratio of PE-backed companies to public companies in Europe will hit a record 2.3x, up from 2.1x at end of 2025. Since 2014, PE-backed companies have doubled to roughly 13,800, while publicly listed firms have stagnated between 5,700 and 7,000 for two decades.

What's New PitchBook's 2026 Artificial Intelligence Outlook declares the start of "The Great Competition Wars," identifying sectors where AI will generate outsized returns and others where overheating will destroy value. Winners will pursue network effects, unique data moats, exceptional design, and creative distribution strategies—while undifferentiated startups face "disproportionate value destruction." Why It Matters We are in the early stages of a 50-year technological

What's New PitchBook's 2026 Healthcare Outlook calls this "one of the best investing opportunities we have seen in decades" across healthcare subsectors. AI is improving Phase I trial success rates from ~52% to ~80%, potentially more than doubling overall approval likelihood—with early-stage assets that have been "capital-deprived" offering the greatest return profiles. Why It Matters After pandemic-induced capital misallocation, healthcare is structurally de-risking. The r

Vista's $100B software factory bets AI is "food not threat"—building GenAI transformation capability to capture middle market opportunity.

AI reshaped private markets in 2025—both as an investment thesis and an operating reality. The industry poured hundreds of billions into data center infrastructure while simultaneously racing to deploy AI tools across deal sourcing, due diligence, and portfolio operations. But the year also revealed that capital isn't the constraint—power is.

Private credit crossed $2 trillion in AUM in 2025, cementing its status as the dominant force in alternative investments. But the year also brought the asset class's first real stress test since the 2008 financial crisis—exposing cracks that had been papered over during 16 years of benign conditions.

Private markets emerged from a three-year fog in 2025—but into an environment of radical transformation rather than simple recovery. Global buyout dealmaking hit $2 trillion (+14% YoY), the third-most-active year on record. For the first time since 2015, distributions to LPs finally exceeded capital contributions. Yet underneath these headline numbers, the industry confronted existential questions about its business model, investor base, and relationship with regulators.

According to Olivia Wassenaar, Partner and Head of Sustainability & Infrastructure at Apollo Global Management, the AI revolution is driving an unprecedented surge in power demand that traditional generation cannot match, creating what the firm's 2026 Infrastructure Outlook calls one of the most attractive opportunity sets in private markets as data centers' share of US electricity consumption is expected to double by 2030 and quadruple over the following decade.

What's New John Cortese, Partner and Co-Head of Corporate Credit at Apollo Global Management, argues in the firm's 2026 Credit Outlook that the technical backdrop defining credit markets has fundamentally shifted, as $1.5 trillion in announced hyperscaler capex and reviving M&A activity are flooding markets with new issuance—transforming what was a seller's market into one that rewards disciplined buyers with the broadest opportunity set in a decade. Why It Matters The conv

Apollo Global Management's 2026 macroeconomic outlook from Chief Economist Torsten Slok warns that the US economy faces a near-term stagflationary environment—with growth softening due to trade frictions and tariffs while inflation remains stuck near 3%—before an AI-fueled reacceleration takes hold, creating a complex backdrop that Slok compares to the 1970s and requires investors to position for higher-for-longer interest rates.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management's 8th Annual Alternative Investments Outlook 2026 declares that private markets have become essential infrastructure for modern investing, with assets under management now exceeding USD 20 trillion globally.

According to Goldman Sachs Asset Management's 2025 Alternatives Summit, corporate M&A volumes in 2025 are expected to match 2021 levels, with IPO markets showing significant recovery despite earlier tariff impacts. The October gathering brought together leaders including former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and former UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who delivered a stark warning that the next decade will be "the most dangerous and transformational of our lifetime."

Robert F. Smith, founder, chairman, and CEO of $100 billion Vista Equity Partners, argues that companies lacking "sovereignty and dominion" over their proprietary workflows and data sets face existential threats in this new era, while incumbents positioned correctly could see operating margins surge from 25% to 40% and beyond.

The disconnect between fully-priced public markets and stalled distributions in private equity is creating unusual opportunity for nimble investors, according to two veteran allocators navigating $155 billion in combined assets.

Apollo's Kleinman warns PE exits face years of headwinds while AI valuations show dangerous froth despite transformative potential.

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners is projecting a return to 14% annual growth over the next five years—up from 10% recently—as normalizing interest rates and currency headwinds reverse while AI infrastructure deployment accelerates beyond anyone's expectations just a year ago, with hyperscaler capital expenditure exploding from $270 billion to $400 billion annually and chip power density increasing tenfold, forcing infrastructure investments the firm now estimates at over $7

Private credit convergence enables $70B LBOs while PE firms innovate exits for $3.9T in unrealized portfolio value.

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Private equity faces mounting pressure to deliver returns after years of overpriced deals and sluggish exits, forcing firms to fundamentally rethink how they create value in an increasingly competitive landscape. Clark O'Neill, BCG's global lead for AI infrastructure and cyber in the private investors and private equity practice, argues that artificial intelligence has moved beyond theoretical potential to become a practical necessity for differentiated returns.