Private Markets Eye Resilient Growth Through 2030 | Preqin Outlook

What's New

Preqin's Global Reports 2026 forecasts private markets entering the new year with cautious optimism and resilient long-term growth prospects across all major asset classes. The research firm projects private equity AUM approaching $12 trillion and private credit reaching $4.5 trillion by 2030, while infrastructure is set to nearly triple toward $3 trillion—with Europe leading that growth trajectory despite near-term deployment challenges and elevated interest rates constraining deal activity.

Why It Matters

These projections signal a fundamental reshaping of institutional portfolios as investors increasingly pivot from public to private allocations in search of yield and diversification. The continued concentration among mega managers, combined with the democratization of private markets to retail investors through new product structures, suggests the industry's structural evolution will accelerate through decade-end—creating both opportunities for established players and existential challenges for smaller firms unable to scale.

Big Picture Drivers

• Rate environment: Easing interest rate expectations support valuation gap narrowing and accelerated PE fundraising from 2027 onward

• Exit pressure: 80% of investors cite exit challenges as their top concern, with DPI for 2019-2020 VC vintages tracking at historic lows

• Manager concentration: Capital increasingly flowing to mega funds while smaller managers face mounting competitive headwinds

• Wealth democratization: Private wealth channels gaining traction through new product structures and generational wealth transfer

• Thematic tailwinds: Digital infrastructure expansion, energy transition, and AI-related deals commanding premium pricing

By The Numbers

• $12T: Projected private equity AUM by 2030

• $4.5T: Forecast private credit AUM by 2030, effectively doubling current levels

• $3T: Expected infrastructure AUM by 2030, with Europe leading growth

• 12.2%: Projected PE IRR through 2030 (down from 14.3% in 2018-2024)

• 75%: North America's expected share of global private credit AUM by 2030

Key Trends to Watch

• Credit evolution: Distressed debt strategies are gaining momentum as investors seek all-weather approaches amid credit cycle uncertainty, even as direct lending maintains dominance.

• Real estate rotation: Debt-focused and opportunistic strategies are driving fundraising recovery while demographic shifts fuel demand for co-living and senior housing assets.

• Infrastructure imbalance: Record dry powder levels combined with subdued deal activity may intensify deployment pressure in 2026, particularly for core-plus strategies.

• VC distribution crunch: Significant residual capital trapped in older vintages continues to weigh on fundraising, though improving exit activity suggests more distributions ahead.

The Wrap

Private markets are navigating a transitional period where near-term caution around exits, valuations, and deployment is balanced against structural tailwinds that favor long-term AUM expansion. Investors and allocators should prepare for continued mega-manager dominance, moderating return expectations, and strategic opportunities in credit, infrastructure, and demographically-driven real estate sectors through 2030.