Private Markets Drive Toward Retirement Access While Navigating Compressed Returns and Geographic Shifts | Weekly Pulse

Must Know: Private Credit Expansion Hits Retirement Mainstream

Trump Administration Clears Path for 401(k) Private Asset Access

• Bottom Line: The White House is preparing an executive order to allow private credit and equity investments in 401(k) retirement plans, potentially unlocking access to the $12 trillion retirement savings market.

  
  

• Why It Matters: 📊 Private credit fundraising from institutional investors has declined 30% from 2021 peaks, making retail access crucial for industry growth. Major firms including KKR,

  
  

• Blackstone, and Blue Owl have already established partnerships with 401(k) managers in preparation.

  
  

• Big Picture: 🎯 This regulatory shift represents the most significant expansion of private market access to retail investors in decades, with target-date funds expected to become the primary vehicle for private credit in retirement plans.

Industry Insights: Strategy & Outlook

📉 Private Credit Caution

GIC's Bryan Yeo warns of compressed spreads and higher valuations: "We are now at a part of the cycle where we feel that spreads are a lot tighter and valuations are also higher, hence we are raising the bar in terms of further deployment."

🎪 Exit Market Dynamics

Blackstone's Jonathan Gray anticipates broad capital markets recovery post-Labor Day, citing restored confidence in US assets following trade deals and tax cuts

🔄 Secondary Market Surge

Industry experts note first-time sellers comprising 40% of LP-led secondary volume, driven by mounting liquidity pressures across institutional investors

🏦 Fee Structure Innovation

1823 Partners launching with performance-only fees above 6% threshold, eschewing traditional management fees to compete with established private capital players

Market Spotlight: Regional Developments

🇺🇸 United States

Regulatory Momentum Building: Trump administration preparing executive order to expand private asset access in retirement plans, with major implications for the $12 trillion 401(k) market

🇪🇺 European Union

Increased Scrutiny: Brussels investigating KKR over potentially misleading information provided during its €22 billion Italian telecoms acquisition

🇸🇬 Singapore

Sovereign Caution: GIC signals growing wariness about private credit investments, citing compressed spreads and lack of downturn experience in the sector

🇨🇭 Switzerland

Wealth Hub Expansion: Apollo Global Management building 50-person team in Zurich over next 3-5 years, targeting private banks and insurers

🇬🇧 United Kingdom

Tax Impact: Apollo's Zurich expansion partly driven by UK's overhaul of non-dom tax regime for wealthy foreign residents

Deal Spotlight: Transactions & Strategies

🏥 Healthcare Sector

• Apollo leading £600 million private credit package for UK dental chain Mydentist to support Bridgepoint Group buyout

• KKR joining Apollo in the Mydentist financing with £475 million unitranche loan plus acquisition line

🌾 Agriculture Finance

• Carlyle Group purchasing $250 million of farm loans from FarmOp Capital through forward flow agreement

• Deal targets farmers buying supplies and selling grain, secured by crops and insurance contracts

⚡ Energy Infrastructure

• ArcLight Capital Partners acquiring Middletown Energy Center natural gas plant in Ohio

• Private equity deals involving gas-fired power plants totaled $49 billion in H1 2025

🏢 Corporate Lending

• Hayfin Capital Management receiving minority stake investments from Mubadala and AXA IM Prime

• Third Point securing $400 million for Insurance Solutions Fund I, targeting private credit opportunities

Fundraising Focus: Capital Formation

🎯 Infrastructure Secondaries

• Blackstone gathering $5 billion for Strategic Partners Infrastructure IV, targeting 14-16% net IRR

💳 Private Credit Expansion

• Third Point closes $400 million first close for Insurance Solutions Fund I

• Partners Group private credit evergreen fund hits €2 billion milestone

• CVC Capital Partners raises over €1 billion across two evergreen funds in under one year

🏀 Sports Portfolio Refinancing

• CVC Capital Partners exploring refinancing of sporting portfolio valued at £9 billion, including stakes in Six Nations Rugby and WTA

🔄 Continuation Funds

• Trilantic Capital Partners targeting $1 billion multi-asset continuation fund at 30% discount to asset values

• Vista Equity Partners raises record $5.6 billion continuation fund for Cloud Software Group stake

🔮 Trends to Watch

🎯 Retail Market Penetration - Major asset managers partnering with 401(k) providers ahead of expected regulatory approval for private asset access

⚖️ Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifying - European authorities investigating private equity deal structures and information accuracy

🔄 Portability Clauses Rising - Private equity firms inserting debt portability provisions to reduce banking fees and streamline future exits

🏦 Traditional Firms Entering - Vanguard, Capital Group, and BlackRock expanding private market offerings through strategic partnerships

💰 Evergreen Fund Growth - Semi-liquid fund assets hitting $500 billion in 2024, with increasing retail investor targeting

🌍 Geographic Diversification - Alternative asset managers expanding European presence, particularly in Switzerland's wealth management hub

📊 Secondary Market Evolution - Record transaction volumes driven by new buyer categories including interval funds and former sellers

🎭 Continuation Fund Proliferation - Private equity firms increasingly using continuation vehicles as primary exit strategy amid limited traditional exit options

📈 By The Numbers

💰 $103 billion - Secondary market transaction volume in H1 2025, up 51% year-over-year and setting a new six-month record

🏦 $800 billion - Assets under management at Singapore's GIC sovereign wealth fund, which is now raising caution flags on private credit

📊 $41 billion - Value of continuation fund exits by private equity firms in H1 2025, representing 19% of all industry sales

💸 $22 billion - Size of KKR's acquisition of Telecom Italia's fixed-line network, now under EU investigation

🎯 $5 billion - Blackstone's latest infrastructure secondaries fund, 30% larger than its

predecessor

💵 $350 million - Stakes that Arch Capital is looking to sell from BlackRock private funds due to disappointing performance

🚀 $280 billion - Blackstone's evergreen fund assets after attracting $10 billion in new money in Q2

📈 $162 billion - Global secondary market volume in 2024, reaching an all-time high