Secondaries Hit $121 Billion and GP Leds Finally Take Control

What's New

Evercore's H1 2026 Secondary Market Review records $121 billion of first half volume, up 19 percent year on year and on track for a full year in the $250 billion to $260 billion range. The headline growth number understates what actually changed. GP led volume reached $65 billion and grew 35 percent while LP led volume reached $56 billion and grew just 4 percent, flipping the market's centre of gravity for the first time. Single asset continuation vehicles alone hit $34 billion, up 88 percent, and now represent 53 percent of all GP led activity. Dry powder fell 10 percent to $194 billion against a capital overhang of roughly 1.0x, meaning the market is now closer to demand constrained than supply constrained.

Why It Matters

The secondaries market has stopped being a discount venue for distressed sellers and become the primary exit mechanism for sponsors who cannot or will not sell into the M&A market. When single asset continuation vehicles price mostly at par with 14 percent above NAV, the transaction is no longer a liquidity concession; it is a valuation event that sets a mark. That reframes the competitive question for GPs, since the ability to execute a credible continuation vehicle is becoming a fundraising differentiator rather than a workaround. For LPs it means their fund interests are being repriced by a market they may not participate in, and for platforms it means secondary pricing data is becoming a governance input rather than a trading input.

Big Picture Drivers

• The exit backlog has no other release valve: Return of capital was cited by 73 percent of buyers as the leading tailwind for the second half. Continuation vehicles are absorbing what the IPO and strategic sale markets are not clearing.

• Concentration is the trade of the moment: Single asset vehicles grew 88 percent while multi asset vehicles hold 33 percent share, and the pricing gap is stark. Buyers will pay par or better for one asset they can underwrite and demand discounts for a portfolio they cannot.

• Capital is being consumed faster than it is replaced: Dry powder dropped from roughly $215 billion to $194 billion in six months, with LP led capital falling 15 percent. A $154 billion second half fundraising target is now the binding constraint on volume.

• Sovereign wealth funds became structural sellers: Their share of LP led volume rose from 12 percent to 21 percent, a shift from opportunistic rebalancing to programmatic portfolio management by the largest and most sophisticated allocators.

• Evergreen vehicles are changing the buyer base: Fifty three percent of buyers now operate evergreen structures, with roughly $60 billion of secondaries focused evergreen AUM and $11 billion of expected inflows over the next twelve months. Perpetual capital changes holding period behaviour.

• Credit secondaries crossed into relevance: First half volume of $20 billion already exceeded full year 2025 at $11 billion, with GP led credit deals pricing near 99 percent of fair market value.

By The Numbers

• $121 billion in H1 volume, up 19 percent, against a full year projection of $250 billion to $260 billion and a historical pattern where the first half carries only about 45 percent of annual activity.

• $65 billion of GP led versus $56 billion of LP led, with growth rates of 35 percent and 4 percent, marking the clearest structural handover the market has recorded.

• $34 billion in single asset continuation vehicles, up 88 percent and now 53 percent of GP led volume, with the majority pricing at par and 14 percent above NAV.

• 71 percent of multi asset vehicles priced below par against a single asset market clearing at par, showing that buyers are paying for underwriting certainty rather than diversification.

• $194 billion of dry powder at roughly 1.0x overhang, down 10 percent year to date, the tightest capital position the market has held during an expansion.

• Super carry appeared in 35 percent of GP led deals, quietly resetting the economics of the vehicle that now defines the market.

Key Trends to Watch

• Fundraising becomes the volume ceiling: With overhang at 1.0x and a $154 billion second half target, the market's growth depends on capital formation rather than deal supply. Any fundraising shortfall shows up immediately as pricing pressure.

• Continuation vehicle performance data arrives: HEC study medians of 1.3x TVPI and 0.3x DPI on 2018 to 2024 vintages are the first real evidence base. Underwriting targets of roughly 2.3x gross on single asset vehicles now have a track record to be measured against.

• Infrastructure and credit become distinct markets: Infrastructure secondaries reached $12 billion, up 33 percent, with $22 billion of dedicated dry powder and blended target returns of 13 to 15 percent net. These are no longer satellite categories.

• Deferred consideration reveals buyer power: Eighty four percent of GP led volume carried no deferral against 66 percent of LP led. Watch that spread, because it inverts quickly when capital tightens.

• Venture remains the outlier: Volume was flat at $5 billion despite 84 percent of buyers expecting growth, with most underwriting to 20 percent plus net IRR. The bid ask gap in venture has not closed.

The Wrap

Evercore describes this as structural demand rather than a cyclical spike, and the composition data supports that reading more convincingly than the volume number does. A market where GP led activity grows nine times faster than LP led activity, where single asset deals clear at par, and where dry powder is falling is a market that has been institutionalised, not one that is opportunistically absorbing distress. The practical consequence is that continuation vehicle execution is becoming a core GP competency with its own diligence, valuation and disclosure requirements. Technology providers should assume that secondary pricing, continuation vehicle terms and super carry economics need to sit inside mainstream portfolio and reporting systems, because they are no longer edge cases in the fund lifecycle.