Private Markets See Q3 Rebound Amid Policy Shifts, Partners Group Says
- Editor
- Aug 17
- 2 min read
What's New
Private markets are experiencing a "quarter of adjustment" with higher tariffs, lower interest rates, and increased policy clarity driving renewed activity. According to Partners Group's Q3 2025 Private Markets Chartbook, deal volumes are rebounding from 2024 lows as trade negotiations provide greater economic certainty and Federal Reserve rate cuts support portfolio company financing costs.
Why It Matters
This convergence of trade clarity, monetary easing, and fiscal stimulus creates a uniquely favorable environment for private markets investors. The combination addresses the three key headwinds that constrained activity in 2024: geopolitical uncertainty, high borrowing costs, and economic volatility.
Big Picture Drivers
Trade clarity: U.S. has signed deals with 28% of top trading partners, reducing tariff uncertainty that previously stalled transactions
Monetary easing: Fed rate cuts improving portfolio company interest coverage ratios from 1.8x to projected 1.9x by mid-2026
Fiscal stimulus: Recently passed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" expected to boost GDP growth by 1.4% through 2028
European opportunity: Germany's fiscal shift from +1.3% surplus to -3% deficit creating investment tailwinds
Infrastructure demand: AI-driven data center needs growing 14% annually, reaching 83GW by 2034
By The Numbers
$838B: U.S. private equity buyout volume projected for 2025, up from $724B in 2024
16%: Current U.S. effective tariff rate, highest since 1930s but providing revenue offset to tax cuts
2.6%: Record-low U.S. data center vacancy rates driving infrastructure investment
€631B: "Made for Germany" corporate investment pledge through 2028, representing 40% increase
9.8%: Current U.S. private credit yields, down from 11.9% peak but remaining attractive
Key Trends to Watch
Federal Reserve implementing two 25-basis-point cuts by year-end as labor market weakness offsets tariff-driven inflation concerns.
Private equity-backed companies maintaining higher profit margins than public counterparts, with 19.9% EBITDA margins versus 16.7% for public markets.
European buyout multiples remaining more attractive at 11.2x versus 12.8x in the U.S., supported by lower financing costs.
Infrastructure benefiting from favorable tax provisions and structural electricity demand growth of 38% through 2050.
The Wrap
Private markets are positioned for sustained growth as policy uncertainty diminishes and financing conditions improve. The convergence of trade deal progress, accommodative monetary policy, and pro-growth fiscal measures creates multiple tailwinds for deal activity, particularly in infrastructure and European markets where valuations remain compelling relative to the U.S.