Private Equity Giants Surge Despite Economic Uncertainty Per Pitchbook Analysis

What's New

According to PitchBook's Q2 2025 US Public PE and GP Deal Roundup, major private equity firms deployed $21 billion in corporate deals during the second quarter—an 85.4% year-over-year surge—despite recession odds averaging 49% in prediction markets. The "Big Seven" public alternative managers maintained robust median returns of 10% over the trailing twelve months while private credit strategies outperformed with 13.3% returns.

Why It Matters

This aggressive deployment signals that major PE firms are positioning for post-uncertainty opportunities rather than retreating during market volatility. The combination of strong returns and increased deal activity demonstrates how large-scale alternative asset managers are leveraging their capital advantages to capture market dislocations, potentially setting the stage for outsized returns when economic conditions stabilize.

Big Picture Drivers

• Regulatory: Trump's August 7 executive order opens 401(k) plans to PE investments, targeting the $12 trillion defined-contribution market

• Opportunistic: Public market volatility from "Liberation Day" tariffs created buying opportunities for PE firms

• Credit: Private credit deployed $141.2 billion quarterly, up 16.5% year-over-year, as traditional lending tightened

• Democratization: Perpetual capital strategies reached $1.8 trillion, representing 41.2% of total AUM as firms target individual investors

• Consolidation: GP deal activity hit 52 transactions worth $10.2 billion through July, on track for second-best year on record

By The Numbers

• $83.1 billion: Total trailing twelve-month PE deployment, up 65.3% year-over-year

• $535.3 billion: Private credit deployment over past 12 months, increasing 60.2% annually

• $69.4 billion: Combined PE realizations, up 35.8% from prior year period

• $722.2 billion: Total capital raised across all strategies in trailing twelve months

• 10% median: TTM returns for PE strategies among major public managers

Key Trends to Watch

• Apollo leads quarterly activity with $6 billion in PE deployment, followed by Blackstone at $5.1 billion and KKR at $4.9 billion.

• Private wealth platforms are scaling rapidly, with Blackstone's retail business reaching $280 billion in assets under management.

• Credit strategies continue dominating fundraising flows, accounting for 58.8% of total capital raised over the past year.

• GP stakes transactions remain active as newcomer PACT Capital Partners completes minority investments in Accel-KKR and Graham Partners.

The Wrap

The private equity industry is demonstrating remarkable resilience and opportunism, with major firms accelerating deployment and expanding into retail markets despite economic headwinds. This strategic positioning, combined with strong returns and diversified fundraising channels, suggests the largest alternative asset managers are well-positioned to capitalize on market dislocations and benefit from regulatory changes expanding their addressable market.