Mega-Funds and Platform LBOs Define the Year | PitchBook US Private Equity Outlook
- Editor
- Dec 31, 2025
- 2 min read
What's New
PitchBook's 2026 US Private Equity Outlook forecasts continued consolidation of fundraising power among top firms and a strategic return to platform LBOs, expected to capture 25% or more of deal activity as financing conditions improve. Through October, platform LBOs accounted for $525.3 billion in deal value—the highest since the 2021 peak.
Why It Matters
The industry faces a "pig in the python" problem—a record 12,900 companies in US PE inventory, with 30% held for seven years or longer. Only 16.6% of the 2021 buyout cohort has exited after four years, compared to 32.3% of the 2017 cohort at the same stage. If extrapolated at current rates, just half of 2021 assets would exit by the 10-year mark.
Big Picture Drivers
Exit velocity crisis: 37.1% of the 2017 cohort remains held nearing year eight, versus just 26.4% of the 2012 cohort after the same duration—assets maturing during downturns are harder to exit
Capital concentration: Top 10 funds captured nearly 46% of capital raised YTD 2025, squeezing out smaller and emerging managers
Credit market tailwinds: New-issue BSL loan yields averaged 8% in Q4—the lowest since Q2 2022—giving sponsors more financing options
Continuation fund peak: GP-led secondary exits hit a record 133 transactions globally through October, but traditional exit reopening should reduce reliance on these vehicles
Medline test case: The planned IPO of Medline, potentially valued at $50 billion, could be the second-largest US PE-backed IPO ever
By The Numbers
12,900: Number of companies in US PE inventory, a record high
$621.7B: Aggregate exit value through October 2025, versus $379.6B in full-year 2024
41: First-time funds closed YTD, on pace to set a record low
61%: Survey respondents anticipating PE exit opportunities will improve somewhat over the next six months
$1T+: US PE dry powder available for deployment
Key Trends to Watch
Sector rotation: 34% of survey respondents identify Technology/AI as the primary driver of upside, with Energy at 25%; "the market has shifted with numerous LBO and M&A opportunities...with particular focus on datacenters, AI, and renewable energy"
Financing flexibility: Tightening spreads have pushed new-issue BSL yields 138 basis points tighter YoY, fueling larger deals
Stranded assets: Survey respondents note "a number of stranded assets remain held at above-market valuations, limiting the pace of capital redeployment"
Secondary evolution: Secondary transactions and NAV-based lending will gain traction as firms seek liquidity amid longer holding periods
The Wrap
2026 will be defined by mega-fund dominance and a concerted effort to churn through aging portfolio companies. Survey sentiment reflects "cautious optimism" with the market "balancing macroeconomic headwinds with innovation-driven opportunities."
Read Full Report PitchBook 2026 US Private Equity Outlook