BlackRock Projects Private Credit Market to Double by 2030

What's New

BlackRock's new "On the Record" series forecasts the private credit market will surge from $2.1 trillion today to $4.5 trillion by decade's end, driven by structural shifts in how companies access capital. The asset management giant argues that more than 44,000 private companies with revenues exceeding $100 million across the US, EU, and UK—representing $40 trillion in aggregate annual revenue—now present a larger financing opportunity than their public market counterparts at $35 trillion.

Why It Matters

This represents a fundamental restructuring of capital markets, with implications for both investors seeking returns and middle-market companies driving economic growth. Private credit is evolving from a niche institutional product into a mainstream portfolio component, potentially reshaping traditional 60/40 stock-bond allocations into 50/30/20 portfolios that include private assets. The shift directly affects retirement savings, corporate financing options, and how capital flows to the businesses that generate over one-third of private sector GDP and employ more than 40 million people in the US alone.

Big Picture Drivers

• Company longevity shifts: Firms are staying private longer rather than pursuing public listings, creating sustained demand for private financing solutions throughout extended growth phases

• Syndicated market concentration: Traditional syndicated credit markets increasingly serve only the largest borrowers, pushing smaller scaled businesses toward private credit alternatives

• Portfolio diversification demand: Investors seek income streams and inflation protection beyond traditional fixed income, with private credit showing near-zero correlation (-0.02) to the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index

• Bank lending evolution: Post-financial crisis regulatory changes have altered the bank lending landscape, creating structural opportunities for non-bank private credit providers

• Fund scale expansion: Average private credit fund sizes have grown from $627 million in 2020 to $1.05 billion in 2024, with some exceeding $10 billion, enabling "jumbo" financings for larger companies

By The Numbers

• $23 trillion: Projected size of investible private markets (equity, credit, infrastructure, real estate) by 2029, up from $15 trillion today

• 80-90%: Share of companies with revenues above $100 million that remain private in the US (80%) and EU/UK (over 90%)

• 40 million: Americans employed by middle-market companies that generate over one-third of private sector GDP

• 10%: Allocation to private credit that improved five-year portfolio returns to 10.9% annually versus 9.7% for traditional 60/40 portfolios, while reducing risk

• 2.1x: Expected growth multiple for private credit market through 2030, outpacing broader private markets expansion

Key Trends to Watch

• Democratization acceleration: Asset managers are incorporating private credit into defined-contribution retirement plans and developing products with lower minimums and improved liquidity, potentially opening access to millions of individual investors beyond current institutional and high-net-worth restrictions.

• Public-private convergence: Large public companies with existing capital markets access are increasingly choosing private financing solutions for major investments, valuing customization and execution certainty over public debt markets, blurring traditional market boundaries.

• Transparency initiatives: Data providers like Preqin are standardizing analytics and performance reporting across private markets, addressing historical opacity concerns and enabling better due diligence and portfolio construction.

• Default performance testing: The market faces its first significant stress test as default rates and realized losses remain historically low to date, with future credit cycles determining whether current risk-adjusted returns prove sustainable across market environments.

The Wrap

BlackRock's entrance into private credit through acquisitions of HPS, GIP, and data provider Preqin signals institutional validation of this market's permanence rather than cyclical popularity. The firm positions private credit not as an alternative asset class but as a necessary complement to public securities for accessing the substantial portion of economic activity occurring in private companies. However, investors must balance the diversification benefits and illiquidity premium against reduced transparency and liquidity compared to public markets, while recognizing that historical performance occurred during relatively benign credit conditions.