Private credit hits $3.5T but faces first stress test in 16 years as defaults rise and manager selectivity becomes critical.

In a recent interview on the Alt Goes Mainstream podcast, Oaktree co-CEO Armen Panossian outlined the firm's defensive positioning ahead of an expected uptick in private credit defaults, warning that the 2018-2021 vintage of leveraged buyouts represents the market's soft underbelly as weak credits face a "day of reckoning" in 2027—while simultaneously highlighting asset-backed finance as a multi-trillion dollar opportunity created by banking sector retreat.

Private markets crossed a Rubicon in 2025—the year the industry's decades-long focus on institutional capital gave way to an all-out assault on retail investor wallets. What began as a trickle of wealth management products became a flood: retail capital in private markets surged at a nearly 60% CAGR over four years to reach approximately $360 billion in assets, with private equity vehicles alone expanding 56% in 2024.

Private credit crossed $2 trillion in AUM in 2025, cementing its status as the dominant force in alternative investments. But the year also brought the asset class's first real stress test since the 2008 financial crisis—exposing cracks that had been papered over during 16 years of benign conditions.

PwC's Asset and Wealth Management Revolution 2025 report projects private markets will capture more than half of total industry revenues by 2030, cementing their position as the sector's most profitable engine. While alternative AUM is expected to reach $34 trillion with private markets specifically hitting $26.6 trillion, the report warns that rising competition will put growing pressure on the standout fees and margins that have defined the asset class.

The Institutional Limited Partners Association published a comprehensive analysis examining how retail investment vehicles are fundamentally reshaping private equity fund dynamics. According to ILPA's 2025 whitepaper, the retail private markets segment has grown at nearly 60% compound annual growth rate over four years to reach approximately $360 billion in assets, with private equity vehicles expanding 56% in 2024 alone.

High inflation and elevated interest rates are forcing wealthy clients to rethink portfolio construction, with traditional 60/40 allocations no longer sufficient for generational wealth building. On J.P. Morgan Asset Management's "Alternative Realities" podcast, Sitara Sundar, Head of Alternative Investment Strategy & Market Intelligence at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, oversees investment guidance for clients managing over $2.9 trillion in assets globally.

According to a comprehensive report by Richard Timbs and Nigel Williams for the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, Australia's rapidly growing $200 billion private credit market exhibits significant operational deficiencies, particularly in real estate-focused funds targeting retail investors. The report reveals widespread conflicts of interest, opaque fee structures, and inconsistent valuation practices that potentially disadvantage investors while benefiting