Susan Casser of Neuberger Berman, Christina Lee of Oaktree, Nawei of Barclays, and Lotfi Kurui of PIMCO argued that private credit is undergoing its first genuine stress test and the result is a widening gap between disciplined and deployment-driven managers in a panel at the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum. Casser disclosed that Neuberger Berman's year-to-date decline rate on its $25 billion direct lending portfolio has reached 98%, up from a normal 94%, even as the market shi

Holly Kim of Glendon Capital, Brett Klene of Sculpture Capital, Susie Gibbons of Davidson Kempner, and Matthew Rakmani of Pella Weinberg Partners argued that a structural default cycle is already underway and will accelerate independent of macroeconomic conditions in a panel at the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum. Davidson Kempner's analysis identified $770 billion in leveraged loan and direct lending credits with leverage above seven times and interest coverage below 1.5 times

Steven Tannenbaum, CIO and founder of Golden Tree Asset Management, argued that credit is in a historically difficult part of the cycle where total returns will trail coupons while equities outperform, but that asset-backed securities, out-of-favor sectors, and private credit are offering better value than they have in two to three years in an interview at the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum.

Christina Menace, a senior leader in Goldman Sachs' capital solutions and alternative origination group, argued that AI infrastructure investment is driving an unprecedented convergence across credit markets and that capital formation is keeping pace with a generational buildout in an interview at the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum. Menace cited Goldman Sachs Research estimates of $1.15 trillion in AI investment from 2025 to 2027.

Jay Clayton, senior Department of Justice official and former SEC Chairman, argued that private credit's real regulatory vulnerability is not systemic risk but inconsistent valuation marks across the industry in an interview at the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum. Clayton confirmed his department is actively examining mark discrepancies across the marketplace and cited pending enforcement cases where valuations sit at the center of the allegations.

European startup valuations are climbing again. Across stages, median pre-money valuations rose in Q1 2026 while the share of down rounds fell to roughly 10%, from 14.7%, according to PitchBook's Q1 2026 European VC Valuations Report.

Logistics dealmaking proved unexpectedly durable last quarter. Private equity logged $9.4 billion across 41 confirmed deals in Q1 2026 (an estimated $10.7 billion across 58), holding firm even as dealmakers were whipsawed by a US Supreme Court ruling on the Trump tariff regime and fresh supply-chain disruption from the Iran war, per PitchBook's Q1 2026 Logistics Report.

After a record run, medtech is taking a breather. Venture funding moderated in Q1 2026 following a multiyear high of $16.1 billion in 2025, while PE deal count dropped to 26 — about 41% below the initially reported Q1 2025 level, according to PitchBook's Q1 2026 Medtech VC and PE Trends report.

Advent's co-chair argues that complexity in European markets, carve-outs, and cross-border sector expertise is the source of durable private equity alpha — not the friction that gets in the way of it.

Private equity fundraising has entered a new era of concentration — and PitchBook argues it's structural, not cyclical. In its Q2 2026 analyst note, "US Private Equity's New Fundraising Reality," the firm finds LPs funneling commitments to a shorter list of brand-name managers, squeezing the middle market so hard that middle-market final closes fell below 200 in 2025 for the first time since 2018.

Venture valuations are setting records again — and AI is the reason. Median pre-money valuations reached new highs across every stage in Q1 2026, with AI companies commanding a roughly 4x premium over peers: Series D+ AI startups carried a median pre-money valuation of $4.7 billion versus $1.3 billion for non-AI, according to PitchBook's Q1 2026 US VC Valuations and Returns Report.

The first four months of 2026 were defined by one word: liquidity. In its Q2 2026 Quantitative Perspectives report, "System Reboot," PitchBook argues that US private equity faces a double bind — semi-liquid vehicles are straining under redemption demand just as an energy spike and LLM-driven software disruption complicate the buyout outlook.

Defense dealmaking is booming. Aerospace & defense (A&D) private equity deal count more than doubled in Q1 2026 to an estimated 143 transactions — a 123% jump from the 64 confirmed deals in Q1 2025 — even as total deal value fell, according to PitchBook's Q1 2026 Aerospace & Defense Report.

Most private strategies are facing a softer return environment heading into Q1 2026 — but commodities are the exception. PitchBook's Q1 2026 Private Capital Return Barometers, a factor-based "nowcast" of US fund returns, show natural resources surging to a Barometer Score of 72 (from 48 in September) even as private equity, venture, and private debt all slipped toward or below neutral.

Healthcare services dealmaking cooled to start the year, with PE activity down 16% year-over-year to 79 deals announced or closed in Q1 2026, per PitchBook's Q1 2026 Healthcare Services Report. The dip owes much to a tough comparison: L.E.K. Consulting's Andrew Kadar attributed it to robust Q1 2025 activity that "set a high YoY comparison bar," adding that sentiment at March's McDermott HPE Miami conference was "positive this year."

A familiar gap reopened in the latest performance data: across nearly every private strategy, one-year returns trailed 10-year results — with venture capital the standout exception. PitchBook's Q3 2025 Global Fund Performance Report (with preliminary Q4 2025 data) shows VC rebounding sharply as the public-market AI trade spilled into private valuations, driving a wide geographic gap in which North America outpaced a less AI-exposed Europe.

Private capital fundraising is still grinding lower. Trailing-12-month commitments fell to $1.23 trillion across 2,613 funds as of March 31, 2026 — down 15.5% in dollars and a striking 45.1% in fund count year-over-year, according to PitchBook's Q1 2026 Global Private Market Fundraising Report.

Starved of distributions, LPs are turning to co-investments to chase AI directly. A prolonged liquidity crunch — cumulative cash flows to LPs have run roughly negative $200 billion since 2022 — has elevated co-investment on both sides of the table, according to PitchBook's Q2 2026 analyst note, "LP Co-Investments in US VC: Chasing AI at a Price."

Jim Zelter, President of Apollo Global Management, argues at the Milken Institute Global Conference 2026 that the unprecedented investment grade capex boom may not translate into commensurate returns for equity holders, even as it powers the broader economy.

Pete Stavros, Co-head of Global Private Equity at KKR, argues that operational improvement is the most sustainable source of alpha in private equity