Private Markets Set to Reshape Global Investing in 2026 | BlackRock Outlook

What's New

BlackRock's Private Markets Outlook 2026 forecasts a fundamental transformation in how capital flows between public and private markets, driven by new fund structures, liquidity solutions, and data transparency that are breaking down traditional barriers between asset classes. The report positions private markets as essential to capturing opportunities in AI infrastructure, the energy transition, and demographic shifts—sectors requiring an estimated $1.5 trillion in data center investment alone through 2030.

Why It Matters

The traditional 60/40 portfolio is evolving toward a 50/30/20 model with private assets comprising the 20%, signaling a structural shift that affects everyone from pension funds to individual retirement savers. With the U.S. Department of Labor rescinding guidance against private assets in 401(k) plans, and evergreen fund structures proliferating (now exceeding $400 billion NAV), private markets are no longer the exclusive domain of institutions—they're becoming foundational to mainstream portfolio construction.

Big Picture Drivers

• Volatility advantage: Market turbulence consistently drives borrowers toward private credit's certainty of execution, with private credit market share growing from 3% in 2014 to 10% today

• Liquidity innovation: Secondaries market volume is on pace to exceed $200 billion in 2025, providing critical release valves for investors seeking distributions

• Infrastructure imperative: A $15 trillion gap between historical infrastructure investment pace and projected needs by 2040 makes private capital essential

• Democratization push: Regulatory changes in the U.S. and Europe are opening private market access to wealth and retirement investors through ELTIFs, LTAFs, and model portfolios

• Real estate reset: Office properties have collapsed from 37% of global transaction volumes pre-2008 to just 13%, fundamentally reshaping the asset class

By The Numbers

• $26 trillion: Total asset-based finance market size, with private lenders capturing just 5%

• $150 billion: Projected 2025 private high-grade credit issuance, exceeding 2024's record $125 billion

• 15%: Estimated additional retirement savings over 40 years from adding private assets to target-date funds

• 20%: Projected compound annual growth rate for global data center demand through 2030

• 4,500: U.S. listed companies today, down from 8,000 in the mid-1990s

Key Trends to Watch

• Secondaries mainstreaming: Portfolio management now drives 51% of LP secondary sales (up from 33% in 2023), establishing secondaries as a core allocation tool rather than a distress signal.

• Asset-based finance expansion: Data centers, equipment leases, music royalties, and sports franchises are creating a new frontier for private credit beyond traditional corporate lending.

• Growth equity resurgence: AI-native companies and late-stage ventures are attracting renewed capital as valuations reset and managers deploy data science tools for deal sourcing.

• Real estate bifurcation: Residential and logistics properties are absorbing institutional capital fleeing offices, while data centers emerge as the top-ranked sector across all global regions.

The Wrap

The convergence of private and public markets represents the most significant portfolio construction shift in a generation. Managers who can deliver whole-portfolio solutions—spanning credit, equity, infrastructure, and real estate with integrated liquidity management—will capture disproportionate market share as investors seek fewer, more strategic partners capable of navigating this new continuum.